A Nomogram-Based Model to Predict Respiratory Dysfunction at 6 Months in Non-Critical COVID-19 Survivors.

Objective: To assess the prevalence of respiratory sequelae of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) survivors at 6 months after hospital discharge and develop a model to identify at-risk patients. Patients and Methods: In this prospective cohort study, hospitalized, non-critical COVID-19 patients evaluated at 6-month follow-up between 26 August, 2020 and 16 December, 2020 were included. Primary outcome was respiratory dysfunction at 6 months, defined as at least one among tachypnea at rest, percent predicted 6-min walking distance at 6-min walking test (6MWT) ≤ 70%, pre-post 6MWT difference in Borg score ≥ 1 or a difference between pre- and post-6MWT oxygen saturation ≥ 5%. A nomogram-based multivariable logistic regression model was built to predict primary outcome. Validation relied on 2000-resample bootstrap. The model was compared to one based uniquely on degree of hypoxemia at admission. Results: Overall, 316 patients were included, of whom 118 (37.3%) showed respiratory dysfunction at 6 months. The nomogram relied on sex, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, degree of hypoxemia at admission, and non-invasive ventilation. It was 73.0% (95% confidence interval 67.3-78.4%) accurate in predicting primary outcome and exhibited minimal departure from ideal prediction. Compared to the model including only hypoxemia at admission, the nomogram showed higher accuracy (73.0 vs 59.1%, P < 0.001) and greater net-benefit in decision curve analyses. When the model included also respiratory data at 1 month, it yielded better accuracy (78.2 vs. 73.2%) and more favorable net-benefit than the original model. Conclusion: The newly developed nomograms accurately identify patients at risk of persistent respiratory dysfunction and may help inform clinical priorities.

A Nomogram-Based Model to Predict Respiratory Dysfunction at 6 Months in Non-Critical COVID-19 Survivors

Objective To assess the prevalence of respiratory sequelae of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) survivors at 6 months after hospital discharge and develop a model to identify at-risk patients. Patients and Methods In this prospective cohort study, hospitalized, non-critical COVID-19 patients evaluated at 6-month follow-up between 26 August, 2020 and 16 December, 2020 were included. Primary outcome was respiratory dysfunction at 6 months, defined as at least one among tachypnea at rest, percent predicted 6-min walking distance at 6-min walking test (6MWT) ≤ 70%, pre-post 6MWT difference in Borg score ≥ 1 or a difference between pre- and post-6MWT oxygen saturation ≥ 5%. A nomogram-based multivariable logistic regression model was built to predict primary outcome. Validation relied on 2000-resample bootstrap. The model was compared to one based uniquely on degree of hypoxemia at admission. Results Overall, 316 patients were included, of whom 118 (37.3%) showed respiratory dysfunction at 6 months. The nomogram relied on sex, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, degree of hypoxemia at admission, and non-invasive ventilation. It was 73.0% (95% confidence interval 67.3–78.4%) accurate in predicting primary outcome and exhibited minimal departure from ideal prediction. Compared to the model including only hypoxemia at admission, the nomogram showed higher accuracy (73.0 vs 59.1%, P < 0.001) and greater net-benefit in decision curve analyses. When the model included also respiratory data at 1 month, it yielded better accuracy (78.2 vs. 73.2%) and more favorable net-benefit than the original model. Conclusion The newly developed nomograms accurately identify patients at risk of persistent respiratory dysfunction and may help inform clinical priorities.

Physical and psychological sequelae at three months after acute illness in COVID-19 survivors.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may leave behind an altered health status early after recovery. We evaluated the clinical status of COVID-19 survivors at three months after hospital discharge. METHODS: In this prospective observational cohort study, hospitalized patients aged ≥18 years, evaluated at one (M1) and three (M3) months post-discharge were enrolled. 251 patients (71.3% males, median [IQR] age 61.8 [53.5-70.7] years) were included. Median (IQR) time from discharge to M3 was 89 (79.5-101) days. Primary outcome was residual respiratory dysfunction (RRD), defined by tachypnea, moderate to very severe dyspnea, or peripheral oxygen saturation ≤95% on room air at M3. RESULTS: RRD was found in 30.4% of patients, with no significant difference compared with M1. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and length of stay were independent predictors of RRD at multivariable logistic regression (odds ratio, OR, [95% confidence interval, CI] 4.13 [1.17-16.88], p 0.033; OR [95% CI] 1.02 [1.00-1.04], p 0.047, respectively). Obesity and C-reactive protein levels upon admission were additional predictors at regression tree analysis. Impaired quality of life (QoL) was reported by 53.2% of patients. Anxiety and insomnia were each present in 25.5% of patients, and PTSD in 22.4%. No difference was found between M1 and M3 in QoL, anxiety or PTSD. Insomnia decreased at M3. Current major psychiatric disorder as well as anxiety, insomnia and PSTD at M1 independently predicted PTSD at M3. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical damage may persist at three months after discharge in COVID-19 survivors. Post-recovery follow-up is an essential component of patient management.

Residual clinical damage after COVID-19: A retrospective and prospective observational cohort study.

Data on residual clinical damage after Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) are lacking. The aims of this study were to investigate whether COVID-19 leaves behind residual dysfunction, and identify patients who might benefit from post-discharge monitoring. All patients aged ≥18 years admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) for COVID-19, and evaluated at post-discharge follow-up between 7 April and 7 May, 2020, were enrolled. Primary outcome was need of follow-up, defined as the presence at follow-up of at least one among: respiratory rate (RR) >20 breaths/min, uncontrolled blood pressure (BP) requiring therapeutic change, moderate to very severe dyspnoea, malnutrition, or new-onset cognitive impairment, according to validated scores. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) served as secondary outcome. 185 patients were included. Median [interquartile range] time from hospital discharge to follow-up was 23 [20-29] days. 109 (58.9%) patients needed follow-up. At follow-up evaluation, 58 (31.3%) patients were dyspnoeic, 41 (22.2%) tachypnoeic, 10 (5.4%) malnourished, 106 (57.3%) at risk for malnutrition. Forty (21.6%) patients had uncontrolled BP requiring therapeutic change, and 47 (25.4%) new-onset cognitive impairment. PTSD was observed in 41 (22.2%) patients. At regression tree analysis, the ratio of arterial oxygen partial pressure to fractional inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) and body mass index (BMI) at ED presentation, and age emerged as independent predictors of the need of follow-up. Patients with PaO2/FiO2 <324 and BMI ≥33 Kg/m2 had the highest odds to require follow-up. Among hospitalised patients, age ≥63 years, or age <63 plus non-invasive ventilation or diabetes identified those with the highest probability to need follow-up. PTSD was independently predicted by female gender and hospitalisation, the latter being protective (odds ratio, OR, 4.03, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.76 to 9.47, p 0.0011; OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.92, p 0.033, respectively). COVID-19 leaves behind physical and psychological dysfunctions. Follow-up programmes should be implemented for selected patients.